KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo see rough times ahead for Apple Watch this year. The analyst issued a note saying he expects sales to drop 25% year over year.

In roughly eight months of availability in 2015, Ming-Chi thinks Apple sold 10.6 million of its chronometers. With a full year of sales and with the release of the second generation of Apple Watch anticipated, the analyst thinks sales will be down to 7.5 million units in 2016.

Kuo is not among the analysts that expect a second gen Apple watch any time soon. He thinks it will enter production in the third quarter of this calendar year, launching and selling alongside Apple’s next flagship phone in the Fall.

Now, working on the assumption that there is a decline, it won’t all be the device’s fault. Part of the problem is what Kuo refers to as an immature wearable device market.

As for what is the device’s fault, the analyst lists a few issues, including iPhone dependency, limited battery life, and the lack of killer apps among them.

With Apple’s refusal to share sales numbers for Apple Watch you may wonder why I bother with this story. It’s because without those numbers perception become reality in the minds of some.

Ming-Chi Kuo is an analyst of note. Even if it proves to be incorrect and even if we never know, this idea could easily pick up steam. It could also be correct.

If you’d like to see for Ming-Chi Kuo’s hit rate of predictions then click on the tag below to see his past predictions and not all of them have come to fruition and those that do, well they were the predictable by any means ones.

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